As shown below, in October of 2006, both the University of Alberta and the David Suzuki Foundation issued press releases in which they claimed that their research, jointly funded by both institutions, shows that sea lice originating from salmon farms cause high levels of mortality among juvenile salmon in the wild, and put their populations at risk of extinction. After concerns about this press release were conveyed to the University of Alberta, it was quietly removed but by then, hundreds of media stories had falsely reported the actual research findings as the University of Alberta had done in the first place. To the best of my knowledge, the University never retracted the inaccurate and misleading information contained in this influential press release.
Below, here are the 10 reasons why I believe that contrary to the alarming claims of the David Suzuki Foundation and University of Alberta scientists - including Alexandra Morton - their actual research findings do NOT show - and have never shown - that sea lice originating from salmon farms cause high levels of mortality among juvenile salmon in the wild and put wild salmon populations at risk of extinction. Ten reasons:
1. Sea lice levels at salmon farms were never measured. None of the papers published by the University of Alberta report any data on sea lice levels actually at salmon farms. None. Never. As it appears to me, the researchers missed or ignored collecting the very data necessary to test their hypothesis that sea lice from salmon farms harm wild salmon. A Scottish expert once commented that it is bizarre in the extreme to make claims about the transmission of sea lice from point 'A' to point 'B' without measuring point 'A.' I agree with that.
2. No fish at the farm during part of the data collection. Dr. Kenneth Brooks, an aquaculture industry consultant, has reported, “… there were no farmed fish containing gravid (egg-bearing) sea lice in this area during their final sample period when Krkosek et al. (2005) again reported peak abundance adjacent to the farm.” (Brooks, 2005).
3. No evidence of causality. In a public hearing of the government of British Columbia, the lead researcher, Dr. Martin Krkosek, admitted that the research findings are "all correlative." A correlation does not show causality. And yet, the University of Alberta and the David Suzuki Foundation falsely reported in the headlines of their press releases, "Wild Salmon Mortality Caused by Fish Farms."
4. Mortality in the wild was never measured. The actual mortality estimates were computer-generated, hypothetical predictions. Senior scientists and experts have suggested that these forecasts lack merit because they were based on highly selective data and flawed assumptions.
In several instances, the wording used by University of Alberta scientists, Alexandra Morton and the David Suzuki Foundation implies that "real-life" observations were made when in fact, the actual research results were hypothetical, computer-generated predictions.
- Example: The University of Alberta reports, "Salmon farms kill wild salmon."
Data used was highly selective - The University of Alberta's hypothetical forecasts of wild salmon mortality and extinction were based on "cherry-picked" data. For example, data prior to 2000 and data for the largest watershed habitat of wild pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, was excluded. Other scientists (Brooks & Jones, 2008) have found that when all relevant data is considered, wild pink salmon returns to the Broughton Archipelago appear to be increasing.
Early experiments that found high mortality were uncontrolled. Early studies by Alexandra Morton and others found high mortality, allegedly due to sea lice. The important thing to know though, is that these were not controlled experiments and have not been replicated. Controlled studies by Dr. Simon Jones and his DFO colleagues have found surprisingly low levels of mortality among juvenile wild salmon - despite high levels of sea lice.
Lack of consistency which is fundamental to mathematical modelling - The "striking consistency" in patterns of sea lice that is reported by University of Alberta scientists - and is fundamental to their mathematical modeling - was not evident in extensive surveys conducted by Fisheries and Oceans Canada in the same areas and during the same time periods, according to Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO, 2006).
5. The published research predictions actually include estimates of high SURVIVAL. The actual, computer-generated prediction of wild salmon mortality was a meaninglessly wide estimate of 9 to 95 percent and includes estimates of HIGH SURVIVAL. However, the data that was publicized in media coverage was cherry-picked in the sense that the predictions of high mortality were highlighted but the predictions of high survival were not.
6. Computer-generated predictions of high mortality are contradicted by real life:
- In 2000, after 13 years of salmon farming in the area, the return of wild pink salmon to the Broughton Archipelago was the highest on record, eight-fold higher than the historical average.
- The marine survival of the offspring of 2002 was estimated at 34 percent, an unprecedented high. If 34 percent of the juveniles survived, it is mathematically impossible that 95 percent were killed by sea lice from salmons - as the David Suzuki Foundation and the University of Alberta have claimed.
- In 2004, the return to Glendale Creek, the largest wild pink salmon habitat in the Broughton, was one of the highest since the 1950s.
- In 2009, wild pink salmon returns were high enough that commercial fishing was allowed - on the very same stocks that University of Alberta scientists, Alexandra Morton and the David Suzuki Foundation claim are at risk of extinction.
- In 2010, the return of sockeye salmon in the Fraser River was the highest on record in nearly 100 years. And yet, the environmental campaigns with which the University of Alberta scientists are involved, continue to claim that sea lice from salmon farms are a serious risk to Fraser sockeye salmon.
7. No method for detecting "farm-origin" sea lice. Sea lice are found on many species of wild fish, including herring and rockfish. A technique to trace their origin doesn't exist. It follows that claims about "farm-origin" sea lice are impossible to back up.
8. The impact of ocean currents was ignored. The David Suzuki Foundation and the University of Alberta reported that "the maximum infection pressure near the farm was 73 times greater than ambient levels." The fact is, sea lice can not infect salmon until about six days after they hatch. In the meantime, they are carried away by ocean currents. If sea lice from salmon farms were infecting wild salmon, it would be many kilometres downstream, not at the farm.
9. High juvenile mortality is normal. Studies from the 1960s - when there were no salmon farms - found that between 59 and 77 percent of juvenile salmon die within the first 40 days after entering the ocean from their natal streams. If so, it is mathematically impossible that sea lice from salmon farms "commonly kill over 80 percent" of juvenile wild salmon - as the University of Alberta and the David Suzuki Foundation have claimed.
10. Extinction, the death of an entire species, was never a risk. Even if wild pink salmon were lost from some streams, the death of the entire species wouldn't occur. In some areas of the Broughton Archipelago, pink salmon from some streams can re-colonize other streams without loss of biodiversity. The alarming use of the term "extinction" is, therefore, unwarranted. (See Riddell et al., 2008).
References:
- Brooks, K. 2005. The effects of water temperature, salinity, and currents on the survival and distribution of the infective copepodid stage of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus Salmonis) originating on Atlantic salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago of British Columbia, Canada. See pg. 182, click here).
- DFO. 2006. State of Knowledge Presentation for the Special Committee on Sustainable Aquaculture, of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. Click here, pgs 25 & 27.
- Hansard transcripts of Dr. Martin Krkosek's testimony to a Special Committee of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. Click here.
- University of Alberta Press Release, Wild Salmon Mortality Caused By Fish Farms. September 27, 2006, click here.
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NOTE: This was originally posted at Fish Farm Fuss, on March 11, 2010.
